01
Enhance scientific knowledge and provide a new paradigm for modelling of trade and trade policy on climate
Using a stakeholder-driven model co-development process and combining different research methods, ENTICE will conduct data and methodological advancements to provide enhanced scientific underpinnings on the impacts of trade and trade policy on climate and broader environmental indicators.
02
Extend the statistical and empirical data foundation to support the study of the effects of trade and trade policies on climate
ENTICE will use and significantly expand the well-renowned Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database with an enhanced sectoral resolution (focusing on energy-intensive and green industries, distinguishing primary vs secondary production processes), the introduction of clean energy industries and new technologies (PV panels, wind turbines, batteries, electric vehicles, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, etc.), the integration of a trade-induced land use/land-use change matrix and transport mode matrix (for international bunker fuels), enhanced representation of agricultural products (additional details for the livestock sector, food loss and waste and nutritional accounting), materials and critical minerals, and refined representation of energy flows (production, consumption, and trade) for the newly introduced sectors based on the International Energy Agency detailed energy balances .
03
Develop a state-of-the-art modelling toolbox to provide insights on climate and trade policy interactions
ENTICE will significantly expand a series of leading macroeconomic models and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with improved sectoral representation, enhanced AFOLU, material, and transport modelling capacity, and the integration of new trade theories and methodological improvements. The models will be used to illustrate and operationalise new trade theories/concepts, including aspects of dynamic market structure and firm-level heterogeneity.
04
Improve our understanding on how key trade characteristics like scale, technique, and composition affect the environment
ENTICE will develop an analytical framework combining advanced empirical and model-based scenario analysis to quantify the factors that drive changes in sector composition and technology adoption in production and consumption. The goal is to enhance our understanding of how changes in the scale of trade, in the type of commodities traded, and in processes and production technology affect emissions (by country and globally) and the environment. This will be used to further improve the endogenous representation of technological advancements, enhance the representation of factors that accelerate/decelerate globalisation and trade liberalisation, and better reflect changes in consumer behavior in large-scale macroeconomic models.
05
Enhance our understanding of the environmental impacts of trade in agriculture, forestry, material resources, and (bio-) energy sectors and the interaction between trade liberalisation and environmental regulations
Trade can create disparities between where the products are produced, and where their socioeconomic and environmental impacts occur. Agricultural trade is a driver of emissions, deforestation, and biodiversity loss in developing nations, where habitat degradation and the endangerment of biodiversity facilitate exports, while energy and material trade also have broad impacts. Following the impact assessment of the trade scenarios, we will delve deeper into which regions, products, and trade agreements experience the largest environmental and climate losses as a consequence of changes in trade. ENTICE will investigate the role of environmental regulations, such as conservation and restoration targets, their interaction with trade policies, and their implementation to avoid leakage and ensure that trade-related production happens in a sustainable way.
06
Analyse the impact and interplay of existing and emerging trade, climate, and industrial policies
ENTICE will employ newly developed models and datasets to systematically analyse the interactions among trade, climate, and industrial policies. ENTICE uses a transdisciplinary approach to develop an inventory of existing Trade, Climate & Environment and Industrial (TCI) policies, identify the cross-cutting elements among them, and therefore map and understand the broad TCI nexus. The project’s enhanced modelling toolbox will be applied to quantify the impacts (resource and financial flows, environmental impacts, security of supply, etc.) of various TCI policies and their interactions through policy portfolios. ENTICE will monitor key developments at the level of international governance, as well as remain up to date with the most pertinent questions via its stakeholder interactions, feeding them into the design of policy simulations and producing policy briefs to directly inform policy makers, industries, and other relevant stakeholders on project outputs.
07
Implement research and develop tools that directly respond to stakeholder needs
This will be done by integrating different types of knowledge and adequately represent different layers of complexity originating from complex economic production, complex socio-political, and socio-ecological systems. The transdisciplinary stakeholder engagement process and, in particular, the project’s ‘listening mechanism’ will enable ENTICE to achieve this ambition.
08
Emphasise on transparency, openness, and legitimacy
All new datasets and modelling improvements will be co-developed with stakeholders, provided as open source/access, and extensively documented. Two fully open tools will also be created to develop associated technical capacities over, as well as enhance the exploitation potential of and further improve the usability of the ENTICE toolbox, especially among non-experts.