RESOURCES
Scientific publications
Rinaldi, L., Merletti, R., Citterio, C., et al. (2026). Environmental and socio-economic implications of solar photovoltaic reshoring under the EU Net Zero Industry Act: A hybrid input–output assessment. Journal of Industrial Ecology.
Title:
Environmental and socio-economic implications of solar photovoltaic reshoring under the EU Net Zero Industry Act: a hybrid input–output assessment
Date:
Authors:
Lorenzo Rinaldi, Raffaele Merletti, Camilla Citterio, Nicolò Golinucci & Matteo Vincenzo Rocco
Journal:
Journal of Industrial Ecology
Description:
The photovoltaic supply chain is complex and geographically concentrated. Assessing the impacts of policies targeting it requires models that explicitly represent supply-chain structure. While process-based life-cycle assessment truncates economy-wide effects and top-down input–output models are too aggregated to resolve individual manufacturing stages, our study develops a hybrid framework integrating a process-based PV supply chain model into the multi-regional input–output accounting structure of EXIOBASE. The model is first verified against reference literature ranges of solar electricity carbon footprints and producer prices, showing literature-consistent results that purely top-down models miss by omitting productive capital. The framework is applied to the Net Zero Industry Act, a major European Union (EU) reshoring policy, under a scenario where 40% of module demand is supplied domestically. Results show that reshoring mainly affects downstream stages, while upstream production remains largely external, leading to moderate changes in consumption-based emissions and limited gains in EU value-added and employment.
Ramírez-Mejía et al. (2026). Land-system spillovers reveal trade-offs in conserving 30% of land. One Earth, 9, Article 101812.
Title:
Land-system spillovers reveal trade-offs in conserving 30% of land
Date:
Authors:
Diana Ramírez-Mejía, Esther Boere, Van Thi Hai Nguyen, Pablo J. Negret, Julie G. Zaehringer, Edouard L. Davin, Armando Valdés-Velásquez, Petr Havlik, Yves Zinngrebe, Peter Messerli, Peter H. Verburg
Journal:
One Earth
Description:
Highlights
• Thirty percent target requires managing spillovers, not just expanding protected areas
• Spillovers vary by context: conversion belts, mosaics, trade shifts, intensification
• Most leakage remains within the same regions where conservation expands
• Policies and monitoring should match spillover patterns and governance capacity
• Thirty percent target requires managing spillovers, not just expanding protected areas
• Spillovers vary by context: conversion belts, mosaics, trade shifts, intensification
• Most leakage remains within the same regions where conservation expands
• Policies and monitoring should match spillover patterns and governance capacity
Rocchi, P., Bosetti, V., Boitier, B., Campagnolo, L., Campolmi, A., Chepeliev, M., Forlati, C., Fragkos, P., Hermwille, L., & Nikas, A. (2026). Trade, protectionism, and climate: Assessing analytical capacity in a changing policy landscape. iScience, 29(9
Title:
Trade, protectionism, and climate: Assessing analytical capacity in a changing policy landscape
Date:
Authors:
Paola Rocchi, Valentina Bosetti, Baptiste Boitier, Lorenza Campagnolo, Alessia Campolmi, Maksym Chepeliev, Chiara Forlati, Panagiotis Fragkos, Lukas Hermwille, Alexandros Nikas
Journal:
iScience
Description:
Strategic, competitiveness-driven, and protectionist trade measures are reshaping global trade, while climate commitments face mounting urgency. This evolving policy landscape requires renewed scrutiny of the trade-climate nexus, as governments depart from liberalization and adopt interventions that affect trade and production patterns. This perspective offers a framework that integrates fragmented insights on trade-climate interactions and applies them to current policy developments. By mapping how trade influences emissions and identifying the conditions shaping environmental outcomes, the paper clarifies when and how different trade regimes may hinder or support climate objectives. Building on this foundation, the paper assesses whether existing data, modeling frameworks, and analytical tools are equipped to capture these dynamics and identifies critical gaps that limit current assessments. Finally, the paper outlines priorities for improving data integration, modeling approaches, and scenario design, proposing a forward-looking research agenda to strengthen the analytical basis for evaluating the climate implications of evolving trade regimes.
Chepeliev, M., Bekkers, E., Iyer, G., Qiu, Y., Wojtowicz, K., Yarlagadda, B., Yilmaz, A.N. (2026) Critical Minerals and the Global Supply Chain. Annual Review of Resource Economics 18
Title:
Critical Minerals and the Global Supply Chain
Date:
Authors:
Maksym Chepeliev, Eddy Bekkers, Gokul Iyer, Yang Qiu, Krzysztof Wojtowicz, Brinda Yarlagadda and Ayse Nihal Yilmaz
Journal:
Annual Review of Resource Economics
Description:
The accelerating global transition toward clean energy, expanding electrification, and rapid advances in artificial intelligence have sharply increased demand for critical minerals. These minerals underpin renewable power generation, energy storage, semiconductor manufacturing, and multiple strategic sectors, yet their supply chains remain highly complex, geographically concentrated, and exposed to significant economic, environmental, and geopolitical risks. This review provides a comprehensive, multi-mineral assessment of current supply chain structures and the forces likely to shape their future evolution. We examine upstream extraction, refining bottlenecks, downstream manufacturing dynamics, and emerging pressures arising from overlapping demand across energy and nonenergy sectors. The analysis highlights key factors influencing supply availability—including long project lead times, coproduction constraints, trade policies, and environmental challenges—and evaluates technological and policy levers that can enhance resilience. We outline core elements required for comprehensive modeling frameworks capable of supporting robust, forward-looking decision-making in the increasingly mineral-intensive global economy.
Citterio, C., Golinucci, N., Rinaldi, L. et al. (2026). Carbon intensity of electricity: a systematic methodological and quantitative review. J. Ind. Ecol.
Title:
Carbon intensity of electricity: a systematic methodological and quantitative review
Date:
Authors:
Camilla Citterio, Nicolò Golinucci, Lorenzo Rinaldi & Matteo Vincenzo Rocco
Journal:
Journal of Industrial Ecology
Description:
The carbon footprint of electricity is a critical metric for climate policy and corporate sustainability reporting, yet its quantification is hampered by a lack of methodological consensus and a fragmented evidence base. This fragmentation reflects a central debate in industrial ecology regarding the consistency and comparability of life-cycle-based emission factors across different modelling paradigms. This study addresses this gap by performing a systematic, quantitative comparison of electricity emission factors from a wide range of authoritative sources, including process-LCA databases (Ecoinvent), environmentally extended input–output tables (EXIOBASE, EMERGING, EORA, GLORIA, GTAP), primary agency data (IEA), and others. We harmonize technology taxonomies and GHG characterization factors to compare technology-level and national-level emission factors for the EU and the US. Our findings indicate that, for technology-specific emission factors, there is a moderate level of agreement regarding direct operational emissions (direct carbon intensity). However, we observe substantial and systematic variation when it comes to full life-cycle carbon intensity. These discrepancies propagate to national-level estimates, where a country’s calculated carbon intensity can significantly vary, solely based on the data source chosen. This paper provides a useful reference to deconstruct and understand such divergences. We operationalize these findings into a set of practical selection criteria that enable analysts and decision-makers to make transparent and context-appropriate choices. We conclude that a more transparent and critical approach to sourcing emission data is fundamental to the credibility of carbon accounting and the broader energy transition.
Mejean, A., Leblanc, F., Lefevre, J., Fragkiadakis, D., Fragkos, P., Garaffa, R., Lynch, C., & Vandyck, T. (2026). The equity and efficiency of carbon taxation: A multi-model, multi-country analysis. Climate Change Economics, 0(ja).
Title:
The Equity and Efficiency of Carbon Taxation: A Multi-Model, Multi-Country Analysis
Date:
Authors:
Aurelie Mejean, Florian Leblanc, Julien Lefevre, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Panagiotis Fragkos, Rafael Garaffa, Cormac Lynch, and Toon Vandyck
Journal:
Climate Change Economics VOL. 0, NO. ja
Description:
Climate policies shape inequalities through their effects on structural change via the source of income channel, and on household expenditures via the use of income channel. We compare the impact of carbon pricing on within-country inequalities when tax revenues are recycled through lump-sum transfers or labor tax cuts. We account for the impact of the labor share on inequalities, and compare results across regions with contrasted levels of development, using four macroeconomic integrated assessment models. We find that accounting for the source of income reduces the performance gap between labor tax cuts and lump-sum transfers. Also, carbon pricing with revenue recycling is compatible with reducing inequality, and can increase the consumption of the poorest quartile. We highlight the central role of labor income in shaping the distributional consequences of climate policy beyond consumption-side price effects. Our results suggest that sustaining the labor share can strengthen the progressivity of climate policies.
Ghezzi, D., Rinaldi, L., Horowitz, R., van de Ven, D.-J., Holtz, G., Jülich, A., & Rocco, M. V. (2026). Linking global integrated assessment and hybrid input–output models to support steel decarbonization policies in Europe. Environmental Science & Techno
Title:
Linking Global Integrated Assessment and Hybrid Input–Output Models To Support Steel Decarbonization Policies in Europe
Date:
Authors:
Debora Ghezzi*, Lorenzo Rinaldi, Russell Horowitz, Dirk-Jan van de Ven, Georg Holtz, Alexander Jülich, Matteo Vincenzo Rocco
Journal:
Environmental Science & Technology
Description:
Formulating decarbonization strategies for the European steel industry is crucial for meeting EU climate goals while preserving competitiveness. The present study develops an integrated modeling framework linking GCAM, a technology-rich global integrated assessment model, with the MARIO multiregional input–output framework to trace EU steel production, trade, and its direct and embedded greenhouse-gas emissions. Four scenarios are examined: a baseline aligned with current pledges and three pathways resembling major EU policy packages for 2025–2050, notably the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and green-steel subsidy schemes. Results indicate that CBAM promotes low-emissions steel technologies, reduces total embedded emissions in EU steel consumption (up to −46% in 2030 and −23% in 2050), and helps stabilize the sector during the transition. Complementary green-steel support accelerates deployment of low-carbon production capacity and strengthens long-run competitiveness. Across scenarios, emission intensities of steel production fall (up to −80% in 2050), and consumption-based footprints associated with EU steel demand decline. The GCAM–MARIO coupling provides a transparent link between scenario design and economy-wide footprint accounting, illustrating how border measures and targeted subsidies interact. Overall, combining CBAM with sustained support for green-steel technologies offers an effective pathway to decarbonize the European steel industry while maintaining its international competitiveness.
Chepeliev, M. et al (2026). Capturing system complexity in maritime decarbonization: A multilayer modeling perspective. Environmental Research Letters, 21(10), 101001.
Title:
Capturing system complexity in maritime decarbonization: a multilayer modeling perspective
Date:
Authors:
Maksym Chepeliev*, Rene Banares-Alcantara, Lorenza Campagnolo, Ronald Apriliyanto Halim, Jim Hall, Gianandrea Mannarini, Hesam Naghash, Carlo Palazzi, Ramiro Parrado, Paola Rocchi, Alessandro Taberna and Soheil Shayegh
Journal:
Environmental Research Letters
Description:
The maritime sector plays a key role in facilitating the international movement of goods and people, supporting over 80% of all international cargo movements by weight (UNCTAD 2023). It is also considered a hard-to-abate sector (IRENA 2024), responsible for around 3% of global CO2 emissions (IMO 2021), due to limited electrification potential and substantial energy storage requirements for long-distance shipping, long vessel lifetimes, and the resulting slow turnover of the global fleet, which together lock in fossil-fuel use. Nevertheless, maritime decarbonization faces a rising tide of geopolitical, economic, technological, and environmental challenges. While the adoption of longer-term regulatory measures such as IMO’s Net-zero framework is still under discussion, geopolitical uncertainties and climate change impacts continue to cast a long shadow over global trade, supply chains, and maritime operations. Maritime shipping is not an isolated sector, but a core infrastructure that enables global trade and links production, consumption, and energy systems across regions. As a result, shipping demand, costs, and fuel choices are shaped by developments outside the sector, including shifts in trade patterns, energy markets, and climate policy. This interdependence makes maritime decarbonization a system-level challenge, necessitating a more comprehensive analytical framework for maritime decarbonization to address the interplay of factors, ranging from technological innovation and infrastructure development to economic considerations, regulatory enforcement, and global trade dynamics (Bouman et al 2017)
Nikas, A. et al. (2026). The challenge with climate-energy-economy models in constructing fair and equitable climate futures. Futures, 181, 103850.
Title:
The challenge with climate-energy-economy models in constructing fair and equitable climate futures
Date:
Authors:
Alexandros Nikas, Jon Sampedro, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Iñaki Arto, Sergio Balderrama, Elin Lerum Boasson, Anton Cartwright, Felipe Feijoo, Panagiotis Fragkos, Natasha Frilingou, Xaquin García-Muros, Victoria Herbig, Anastasios Karamaneas, Konstantinos Koasidis, Lin Ma, Shivika Mittal, Melina Moleskis, Thomas Nikolakakis, Minal Pathak, Glen P. Peters, Charalampos Platias, Robert C. Pietzcker, Selim Raihan, Clàudia Rodés-Bachs, Joeri Rogelj, Aleksander Śniegocki, Ida Sognnæs, Pantelis Solomou, Dimitra Spatharidou, Constantinos Taliotis, Christina Tigka, Manuel Tomás, Georgios P. Trachanas, Ioannis Tsipouridis, Dirk-Jan van de Ven, Bianca Vienni-Baptista, Theodoros Zachariadis, Athanasia Arnokourou, Evi Makri, Ajay Gambhir, Kurt Kratena, Georgios Xexakis
Journal:
Futures
Description:
Climate change and policy are unevenly experienced across nations, social groups, households, sectors, and generations. Understanding how benefits and burdens of climate action can be equitably shared is therefore critical. While the cornerstone concept of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities’ is broadly accepted, the absence of consensus on equitable effort-sharing principles presents a challenge that permeates science underpinning climate policy. Climate-energy-economy models exhibit considerable conceptual, structural, and technical limitations in constructing equitable climate futures: they aggregate diverse Global South countries into homogeneous regions, fail to capture critical elements of international climate finance, and tend to produce one-size-fits-all strategies with limited consideration of local contexts. Model-based studies, additionally, have been argued to reflect Global North narratives in international scenario ensembles, assume persisting inequalities between the Global North and the Global South in the future, obscure ethical or normative choices behind operationalised principles of justice, and fail to systematically include stakeholders and scientists from the Global South. Here, we explore how modelling science can be more inclusive and effective in recognising these issues and co-constructing just climate futures. While acknowledging the inherent limitations of any modelling exercise, we argue that progress depends on several key actions, including meaningfully collaborating with stakeholders and scientists from other disciplines and critically from hitherto underrepresented and underfunded regions, incorporating wider policy priorities beyond mitigation, improving data and modelling capabilities to better represent the varied conditions of different communities, and integrating elements, policies, and governance structures that are indispensable to representing climate finance considerations.
Perdana, S., Vielle, M., & Li, R. (2026). Trade war to cooperation: scrutinizing China’s strategies to the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism. Review of World Economics.
Title:
Trade war to cooperation: scrutinizing China’s strategies to the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism
Date:
Authors:
Sigit Perdana, Marc Vielle & Ru Li
Journal:
Review of World Economics
Description:
This paper delves into the anticipated impact of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (EU CBAM) on its trading partners, with a particular focus on China. Centralizing to China’s critical sectors of iron, steel, and aluminum, findings suggest the CBAM may complicate the EU-China trade war, exacerbating trade imbalances. Analysis of various scenarios of potential retaliatory measures and policy alternatives for China reveal possible escalation into a trade conflict between the EU and China, with potential retaliatory measures improving China’s welfare but posing economic costs. The EU CBAM may also introduce trade discriminatory implications favoring the EU, raising concerns about WTO compliance. China might adhere by engaging in resource shuffling, such as offsetting emissions or prioritizing the use of green electricity solely for exports to the EU. This approach has demonstrated beneficial outcomes, enhancing both production efficiency and overall welfare. These findings suggest the importance of the coercive measures in facilitating collective implementation for more effective CBAM implementation. The complex dynamics between the EU and China underscore the multifaceted challenges and potential consequences associated with the EU CBAM.
Keppo, I., et al. (2026). Model linking for low-carbon transitions: Technical and conceptual challenges and best practices. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 226(Part C), 116384.
Title:
Model linking for low-carbon transitions: Technical and conceptual challenges and best practices
Date:
Authors:
Ilkka Keppo, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Francesco Gardumi, Georg Holtz, Alexandros Nikas, Georgios Xexakis, Noelia Ferreras-Alonso, Panagiotis Fragkos, Natasha Frilingou, Hesam Ghadaksaz, Adam Hawkes, Adrián Mateo, Shivika Mittal, Gonzalo Parrado-Hernando, Glen P. Peters, Lorenzo Rinaldi, Matteo Vincenzo Rocco, Ida Sognnæs, Dirk-Jan van de Ven , Behzad Zamanipour
Journal:
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Description:
Linking existing models to extend energy system and integrated assessment analysis is an increasingly common practice. Despite this, and unlike in the field of environmental and earth sciences, little attention has so far been paid to the details of it, to the trade-offs involved and the way in which the model linking affects the interpretation of the outcomes of the interlinked model system. Our aim in this paper is to first focus on a set of key technical and methodological problems that are common in model linking and suggest how these could be approached in different model linking contexts. We then further explore how model linking may affect the nature of the knowledge produced, and how this should be considered in the model linking process. Reflecting our literature driven assessment of the issues and possible solutions, we compile “a check list” to assist in the process of decision making for model linking.
König, R. et al. (2025). How to consider feasibility aspects of transformation pathways for the industry sector: Implications for energy systems modelling. Energy Strategy Reviews, 62, 101901
Title:
How to consider feasibility aspects of transformation pathways for the industry sector - implications for energy systems modelling
Date:
Authors:
Robin Konig, Thomas Pregger, Stefan Kronshage, Patrick Jochem, Bryce McCall, Georg Holtz, Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan, Panagiotis Fragkos, Fei Teng, Steven J. Smith, Sven Teske
Journal:
Energy Strategy Reviews
Description:
This study examines various aspects of the feasibility of mitigation options and pathways and proposes a conceptual framework for systematically integrating feasibility assessments into model-based studies,
particularly on the industrial sector.
particularly on the industrial sector.
Perdana, S., & Vielle, M. (2026). Regional inequality of the European ETS-2. Energy Policy, 208, 114891
Title:
Regional inequality of the European ETS-2
Date:
Authors:
Sigit Perdana, Marc Vielle
Journal:
Energy Policy
Description:
This study examines the distributional impacts of the EU’s second Emissions Trading System (ETS-2) on households across 1160 European regions, with a focus on the interaction between climate policy and social equity. Using household survey data, economic modeling, and spatial mapping, it evaluates the effects of a projected € 100 per ton CO2 price by 2030 on heating and transportation expenditures. Results indicate that low-income, rural households and larger families are disproportionately affected, with the strongest impacts observed in lower-GDP regions of Central and Eastern Europe. These findings confirm the regressive potential of carbon pricing and underscore the need for regionally tailored compensation measures. The Social Climate Fund (SCF), already established to mitigate such impacts, could benefit from these insights to guide the design and allocation of its resources, supporting an ETS-2 implementation that advances a climate transition which is both environmentally effective and socially equitable.
Hartvig, Á. D., Simo, M., Fazekas, D., Fragkos, P., Fragkiadakis, K., Fragkiadakis, D., & Vrontisi, Z. (2025). Comparing economic impacts of net-zero transition with climate damage uncertainties using a dual-model approach. Environmental Research: Energy.
Title:
Comparing economic impacts of net-zero transition with climate damage uncertainties using a dual-model approach
Date:
Authors:
Áron Dénes Hartvig, Marton Simo, Dora Fazekas, Panagiotis Fragkos, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Zoi Vrontisi
Journal:
Environmental Research: Energy
Description:
This study conducts a scenario analysis of global net-zero emissions by 2050 using two macroeconomic models with distinct theoretical foundations: E3ME (non-equilibrium) and GEM-E3 (equilibrium). The analysis quantifies the economic impacts of increasing climate policy ambition to meet the global 1.5°C warming target and highlights key differences between the models in projecting GDP, employment, and sectoral transitions. The findings indicate that while economic outcomes of decarbonization may vary depending on the model paradigm used, the uncertainties in climate damage projections far exceed those of mitigation costs. By comparing the economic impacts of mitigation with potential losses from climate damages, the study finds that the costs of mitigation are lower and more predictable than the potential climate damage costs. Limiting warming to 1.5°C yields net economic gains in almost all countries examined, while a 3°C trajectory could trigger widespread losses. The study reinforces the need for decisive and immediate global mitigation efforts.