Deliverables

The deliverable focuses on the enhancement of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base in the part of energy-intensive sectors, describing the first release of sectoral inventories required to extend the GTAP multi-regional input-output (MRIO) database in support of the modelling activities undertaken within the ENTICE project. The deliverable accompanies the sector-level data inventories necessary for the disaggregation and expansion of the GTAP-Power v12a database (with 2023 reference year), enabling a more detailed representation of industrial activities relevant to the analysis of trade, climate, and industrial transformation policies. The inventories are delivered in a standardized format that allow to reproduce the database extensions within the Multifunctional Analysis of Regions through Input-Output (MARIO) framework, supporting automated integration into the database construction workflow while preserving the aggregate consistency of the underlying GTAP database.

This narrative analysis reveals a deeply fragmented European media landscape where discussions on the trade-climate-industry nexus are shaped by unique domestic economic and political structures rather than a unified continental consensus. In Germany, the public discourse is defined by a profound tension between maintaining historical industrial continuity and pursuing structural green transformation, leaving stakeholders anxious about the administrative complexities of mechanisms like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Conversely, Poland’s media landscape reflects severe anxieties regarding competitive disadvantages and economic security, consistently framing the nation as a defensive rule-taker grappling with top-down mandates imposed by the EU. In Greece, where the industrial base is comparatively small, the narrative context is sparse and focuses primarily on energy resilience and shipping security amidst rising geopolitical volatility. Looking at open economies, the Netherlands displays an acute narrative sensitivity to volatile energy prices and external trade pressures, frequently viewing integrated European regulations as a heroic necessity to protect domestic markets. Meanwhile, Sweden stands out for its highly proactive, market-oriented perspective, with media coverage championing strict European climate benchmarks as lucrative opportunities to reward green technological and industrial innovation. 

Synthesising these diverse national case studies demonstrates that the public perception of the European Union has fundamentally shifted over the past decade. Rather than being universally celebrated as a pioneering global standard-setter that exports environmental values and pioneers' sustainable competitiveness, the EU is increasingly viewed through an analytical lens of economic realism, functioning as a highly negotiated regulatory framework that is continuously reinterpreted based on immediate domestic vulnerabilities and geopolitical challenges.

This is the first update of ENTICE’s strategy for the communication, dissemination, and exploitation (CDE) of project results. It reflects on the progress made during the first 18 months of project implementation and updates the strategy in light of the evolving trade, climate, and industrial policy landscape. The update refines the project's target audience mapping, stakeholder engagement approach, communication priorities, dissemination activities, and exploitation pathways. This revised strategy aims to support the effective communication, uptake, and long-term use of ENTICE's outputs by policymakers, researchers, industry stakeholders, civil society organisations, and other relevant audiences throughout the rest of the project and beyond, and to provide best practices to maximise the project’s public outreach. 

This deliverable reports the mid-term progress under the ENTICE project’s WP3 tasks on extending and improving the modelling of trade and its environmental impacts, following the roadmap established in deliverable D3.1. Work has advanced along five lines. Task 3.2 formalised a generic, accounting-consistent methodology to split input–output data and structures and integrate new sectors (e.g., emissions-intensive industries, clean-tech manufacturing, and critical materials), with implementation to scale up once datasets developed in WP2 are finalised. Task 3.3 completed Step 1 on integrating New Trade Theory by delivering a unified Armington–Krugman–Melitz framework and a GTAP-based GAMS calibration toolkit with closed-form solutions for key fixed costs; next steps focus on proof-of-concept implementation in selected large-scale models and partner guidance. Task 3.4 has extended R&D data series, and is currently constructing knowledge-spillover matrices using different proxies (GMRIO-, patent- and FDI-based), alongside two modelling templates: a transferable R&D/knowledge-stock framework and a directed technological change proof of concept with endogenous market structure and vertical energy linkages; next steps target an internal dataset release by early autumn 2026 and multi-regional extensions. Task 3.5 translated this ambition into an operational roadmap, clarifying alignment requirements, exchange variables, and coupling options, with initial one-way soft-link tests planned. Task 3.6 defined lookup-table and CGE-prototype integration routes for AFOLU emissions and initiated an updated land-cover baseline and transition matrix to support LULUCF and biodiversity indicators.

This deliverable defines a common reference scenario and a harmonised set of quantitative indicators to support the analysis of trade–industry–environment interactions within the ENTICE project. It provides a shared analytical framework to ensure coherence and comparability across modelling exercises and policy assessments conducted in Work Packages 4 and 5. 

Building on inputs from a dedicated Scenario Definition Workshop conduced within ENTICE, the deliverable identifies the main dimensions shaping the trade–industry–environment nexus and organises them into a layered scenario framework. This approach enables the characterisation of critical shifts in system and the exploration of alternative trajectories that frame the outer range of plausible trajectories around the reference pathway resulting in a limited set of archetypal narratives capturing contrasting configurations of trade integration, industrial organisation, climate ambition, and enabling conditions. 

The report establishes a single reference scenario reflecting recent historical trends and currently implemented climate and trade policies, anchored to the updated socioeconomic development assumptions of the SSP2 “Middle of the Road” pathway. This reference scenario serves as a neutral benchmark for assessing the impacts of alternative trade, climate, and industrial policy configurations. Key assumptions are specified for core socioeconomic drivers, selected exogenous drivers such as energy prices, extractive materials, and technology costs, and for the treatment of climate, trade, and industrial policies in the baseline. 

In addition, the report proposes a structured set of indicators to describe trade patterns, industrial structures, and environmental outcomes, including greenhouse gas emissions and broader environmental pressures such as resource use, land-use change, biodiversity, and pollution. The indicators are designed to be computable from ENTICE modelling tools and to support cross-model comparison and integration. Together, these elements establish the reference framework and metrics underpinning subsequent ENTICE scenario analyses.

Large-scale macroeconomic and integrated assessment models have been widely used in analysing policy scenarios at the intersection of trade, climate, and industry (TCI). They have been utilised to assess policy impacts, distributional effects, and transition pathways within an increasingly interconnected global economy. As climate ambitions intensify and global trade patterns evolve, the capacity of these models to adequately represent the TCI interconnections is a core issue within the modelling community. This deliverable provides a systematic assessment of the current modelling landscape with respect to this nexus, and demarcates research capabilities, limitations, and modelling challenges. 

This analysis focuses primarily on the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which form the backbone of quantitative analysis for trade, climate, and industry (and their interface)—as well as the bedrock of one of the key lines of evidence in IPCC assessments. By means of a series of (systematic) literature reviews and exchanges with the modelling community, it examines not only the depth of model coverage but also theoretical and structural assumptions shaping models’ response to shocks. Two core modelling dimensions, which are both central in the ENTICE project, are given particular attention: the representation of international trade and the treatment of technological progress. In addition, the review considers complementary dimensions that are relevant to the project’s activities, including international transport, material flows, sectoral granularity, and land-use impacts.

This deliverable outlines the ambition of WP3, structured around five model-development axes designed to enhance assessment capabilities from Month 30 onwards. It defines, for each task, the objectives, scope of work, and planned activities to ensure steady progress, sustained dialogue between task leaders and modelling teams, and coherent enhancements to be used in WP4 and WP5 for scenario and policy analysis. 

A preliminary survey, conducted in May 2025 with fourteen models from ten teams, provided an overview of the modelling tools involved and the expectations of the modellers. The results reveal a predominance of macroeconomic models, particularly computable general equilibrium models, many of which rely on GTAP data and operate at global scale. Several models already incorporate endogenous technological change, bilateral trade flows, environmental indicators, or land-use representation. 

The work plans build on the survey findings to align modellers’ priorities with the ENTICE research agenda. While most enhancement tasks are independent, some require close coordination with WP2. WP3 will therefore organise monthly meetings to review progress, alongside targeted discussions between task leaders and modelling teams, to ensure effective collaboration and timely implementation of the planned model developments.

This report demonstrates that the project meetings have been successfully organised, with a high level of participation across the consortium and with clearly defined objectives, procedures, and timelines. It documents the meeting agendas and attendance and provides a concise overview of the discussions held during each Executive Board, General Assembly and Scientific Advisory Board meeting of the project’s first year.

This deliverable synthesizes the state of the art on the trade–climate–industry (TCI) nexus for ENTICE WP1
across three strands: (i) economics of trade and the environment; (ii) political science on governance of
climate, industrial policy, competitiveness and trade; and (iii) the representation of trade policy in modelling.
Using a systematic protocol (Web of Science/Scopus searches, PRISMA-style documentation, shared code-
book, Taguette), we screened ~3,881 economics and ~3,608 political-science records to core sets of ~193
and ~165 articles, respectively; a targeted modelling scan retained ~147 recent papers. Economics findings,
organized by the scale–composition–technique (CST) framework, show scale effects raise emissions, com-
position effects are modest and heterogeneous, and technique effects (regulation, innovation, diffusion)
generally dominate, yielding declining emission intensities. Evidence on the Pollution Haven/Halo and Porter
hypotheses is mixed and context-dependent; Environmental Kuznets Curve patterns are not universal.
Global value chains complicate production- versus consumption-based responsibility. Political science maps
enabling and constraining governance themes: carbon leakage and competitiveness; carbon pricing and
trade; border carbon adjustments; green industrial subsidies; North–South equity; embodied-emissions ac-
counting; WTO compatibility; environmental provisions in trade agreements; and climate clubs/minilateral
cooperation. These raise design, legitimacy and fairness considerations for climate-compatible trade policy.
Modelling evidence shows CGE models (often GTAP-based) predominate; most adopt Armington trade, ne-
glect firm heterogeneity, and treat technological change exogenously – limiting analysis of instruments such
as BCAs and green subsidies. The report highlights priorities for ENTICE: better integration of policy instru-
ments, GVC/transport channels, endogenous innovation, and producer–consumer responsibility into mod-
elling to inform coherent trade-climate policy design.

This deliverable comprises a technical report describing the research process and summarizing the insights from two main outputs which are included as annexes. The first represents the TCI research framework which is intended to structure qualitative and quantitative research as well as stakeholder engagement of the ENTICE project. Its key elements include a succinct discussion of definitions of trade-, climate-, and industrial policy respectively and their interactions. It provides a concise summary of the economic foundations of trade-environment interactions and proposes a unified taxonomy of TCI policy instruments. A perspective on commodities and associated emissions across the value chain completes the framework. The second output is a manuscript for an academic perspective-type article which places the same economic foundations entailed in the TCI framework in the light of recent geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts and derives key research challenges on that basis: (1) we need to better understand complex and non-linear trade-climate links and especially understand path dependency and asymmetric effects; (2) we need to strengthen enabling conditions in terms of institutional quality and regulatory frameworks; and (3) we need to understand under what conditions can trade and industrial policy deliver co-benefits for both competitiveness and decarbonisation?

The ENTICE project is managed through a well-defined governance structure comprising the Project Coordinator (PC), Project Manager/Quality Manager (PM/QM), Work Package Leaders (WPLs), and the General Assembly (GA). The PC leads coordination with the European Commission, while the PM/QM ensures efficient operations and quality assurance across all project activities and outputs. WPLs oversee the scientific delivery of their work packages ensuring that all deliverables and milestones are delivered on  time and with high quality, and the GA serves as the main decision-making body.

Robust management procedures have been developed for internal communication, decision-making, conflict resolution, and document sharing. The project adheres to official reporting requirements defined in the Grant Agreement, submitting periodic technical and financial reports via the Funding & Tenders Portal. Deliverables undergo a structured quality assurance process involving at least 2-3 internal reviewers, the PM/QM, and the E3M management team, with clear criteria and timelines.

In addition to formal deliverables, other materials like policy briefs and communication outputs are subject to streamlined review procedures to ensure clarity and consistency. Project performance is tracked through a self-evaluation framework that includes outcome and impact indicators, dissemination metrics, and operational indicators, updated every six months. Risk management is embedded in the project through continuous identification, assessment, and mitigation of technical and managerial risks, led by E3M with input from all partners. 

This communication, dissemination and exploitation plan serves as the ENTICE project’s guidance framework for all communication, dissemination and exploitation activities. It presents a comprehensive strategy designed to effectively communicate the project’s objectives, activities, findings, and results to its target audiences, while also outlining the key CDE tools, that will be employed to maximise the impact of project outcomes.

The plan identifies target audiences for the project, which range from policymakers, scientists, researchers and industrial and business/trade associations to individual citizens and environmental, climate, and civil society NGOs. It also describes the various CDE tools that will be utilised such as the project’s visual identity, website, social media channels, and bi-monthly newsletters to events, publications, interactive tools, and synergies with other relevant projects/activities. Finally, the plan sets measurable targets (KPIs) to enable verification and evaluation of CDE progress. The CDE plan is designed as a living document that will be continuously revised and updated to respond to challenges, identify opportunities and reinforce successes observed during the implementation of this version of the plan.

This deliverable reports the first version of the open Data Management Plan (DMP) of ENTICE, which will be updated during the second reporting period (D2.2) of the project. The plan ensures that research data collected, processed, and produced will be appropriately documented, stored, and made available to the scientific community and relevant stakeholders. It entails a protocol for handling the data that will be used and created during the project’s lifecycle and provides guidelines to ensure the consortium adheres to the four FAIR principles (findability, accessibility, interoperability, reusability), along with details on resource allocation, data security, and ethical aspects. The DMP of ENTICE will be machine-actionable and continually assess and improve the requirements for knowledge and data exchange, assuring that research datasets are handled in alignment with FAIR guidelines.

Delivering societally relevant and policy-actionable outcomes is a core objective of the ENTICE project. This document presents a stakeholder engagement strategy that is designed to foster collaboration and knowledge exchange between consortium partners and external actors in support of that objective. The primary scope of the stakeholder processes in ENTICE is to ensure the relevance of the project’s research and overall activities for policymaking, promote mutual understanding and trust between modellers and societal actors (including policymakers), and incorporate direct stakeholder input to ensure that the scientific process reflects real-world social and political dynamics.

The stakeholder engagement plan builds on a “transdisciplinary listening mechanism”, which is intended to offer a structured approach to collaboration between project partners and external stakeholders. In ENTICE, stakeholders will be selected on an ad-hoc basis from a well-maintained, ethics-compliant database managed by ICCS and designated persons across the consortium. This database will draw on the established networks of all consortium partners. Engagement itself will remain flexible in nature and timing, meaning that several methods will support our stakeholder process—including bilateral interviews, workshops/focus group discussions, surveys/questionnaires, and/or public events.

Together with project coordinators (E3M), ICCS will lead the implementation of the stakeholder engagement strategy, in close collaboration with all project partners. This process begins with the selection of appropriate stakeholders to populate the stakeholder database, collaborative development of a policy-relevant research agenda broken down into a series of themes that may serve different purposes and project objectives, and ad-hoc selection of stakeholders to invite in a series of online seminars corresponding to said themes.